New York

A positive week in NY as the market closed up 5.45 c/lb (+2.71%).  The open interest continues to decline -4,981 lots (-2.22%) continuing to indicate that participants are exiting the market.  Volume was down on the previous week -56,969 lots (-23%), mostly made up by reductions in the spreads and the outright volume.

London

A positive week in London with the market up $78 / MT (+2.27%).  Open interest increased + 4,374 lots (5.56%) indicating that participants are entering the market on the back of this move.  Volume was also down in comparison with the previous week -7,289 lots (-8.77%), however the percentage decline was much lower than in NY.

Coffee Markets Commitment of Traders

New York

The Manage Money (MM) continued to reduce their net long position this week -6,755 lots making their net long position 54,069 lots.  This is still elevated and towards the upper end of normal levels, but far below the 72,818 net long position on the 16 April ’24 when the market was trading at 228.40 c/lb.   Since that time the MM have sold -18,749 lots and the market has moved -27.55 c/lb. 

The Producer Merchants (PM) continued to reduce their net short position, buying + 5,693 lots making their net short position -47,992 lots.  This was achieved via the increases in long by + 618 lots and the reduction in shorts by – 5,345 lots.

In comparison with the same time last year the PM Long is very much in line whilst the PM short is well below.  The implication being that the physical hedged purchases held by the PM are very much reduced i.e. Producers have not responded to the move lower.

Since the cut off for the reporting of the COT data the Open Interest through to Thursday has declined by another -3,418 lots, implication being that MM continues to exit probably.

London

The MM in London continued to reduce their net long position -2,049 lots and their net long is now +21,800 lots.  The size of this position is now well within normal parameters and therefore is neutral, as they have plenty of room to either add or reduce this position. 

The PM also continued to reduce their net short position +2,193 lots (+ 6,843 lots long and +4,650 lots short) making their net position -24,862 lots short

Again, as per NY the PM Long is in line with where it was last year whereas the PM Short is well behind, considering the situation in the physical market and the movement in the PM Long this is surprising.

In spite of the reduction of the MM Long position the OI has increased up and until the COT reporting cut off date and since then through to Thursday.

New York

Over the course of the week not a dramatic change, up 0.40 c/lb (+0.20 %).  Volume was down in comparison with the previous weeks and the outright volume was down significantly.  Open interest decreased by -4,781 lots (-2.08%) indicating market participants were leaving the market. 

London

A short week this week in London with the bank holiday, the market ended the week down $ -101 / MT (-2.85%).  Increased volume on the Tuesday when the market had the biggest move.  Volume was elevated in comparison with the previous week especially for the outright volume.  The open interest hardly changed which is neutral indicating that there were no significant numbers joining or leaving the market. 

Coffee Commitment of Traders

New York

The Managed Money (MM)reduced their net long position by -8,824 lots, their net position now stands at +60,824 lots.  This is a long way off their recent highs and whilst it is still elevated the numbers are withing more normal parameters.  -13 MM traders left the long side of the market and +10 MM traders joined on the short side.

At the same time the Producer Merchants also reduced their net short, +7,362 lots making their net position -53,955 lots. 

London

The Managed Money in London reduced their position significantly, reducing their net long position by -7,156 lots making their net long position +23,849 lots.  This number is well within what we can expect from the MM / what we have seen over the last three years.  It is worth considering that the significant reduction in the long was achieved in a shortened week. -11 MM traders left the long side and +2 traders joined on the short side.

At the same time the Producer Merchants reduced their net short position + 14,332 lots making their net position -27,055.  This is a small position in comparison with long term averages.  It should be noted that the PM long increased by +4733 lots whilst at the same time the short was reduced by – 9,599 lots. 

New York

A big move in NY and the market was down 23.25 c/lb. on the week (-10.71%).  Given the size of the move it is surprising that the open interest (OI) through to close of business on Thursday was only down -158 lots.  Volume was higher than last week but remains lower in the weeks approaching the May’24 options expiry.  Both the spread and outright volume picked up significantly.

London

The moves in London were proportionally larger, the Jul24 contract was down by -610 / MT on the week (-14.70%).  Open Interest declined significantly during the course of the week indicating participants leaving the market -7,159 lots (-8.10 %).  Total volume in the market increased, driven by the outright volume however the spread volume was down on the previous week. 

Commitment Of Traders

New York

The managed money this week reduced their net long by -308 lots. (+365 lots long and +673 lots short) taking their total net position down to 69,648 lots. At the same time -9 trades left on the long side and 4 traders joined on the short side.  Their total net position still remains within the upper limits of historical levels over the last three years.   

The producer merchants reduced their net short position by 5,179 lots (- 463 lots long and -5,462 lots short) making their net short position -61,317 lots short.  As the PM short was reduced (theoretically the hedge by PM of a physical purchase from origin) it is reasonable to believe that Origin / producers have been slow to respond to this move.

It is important to remember that since the COT numbers were officially published the market has come off 15.90 c/lb.  At the same time OI only fell by -584 lots.  Given the size of the move and the speed this is surprising as it indicates not many participants are leaving the market. The OI figures for close of business Friday are not yet published.

London

The managed money reduced their position by -517 lots (-961 lots long and -444 lots short making their net position + 31,005 lots.  The reduction of this position over the last 4 weeks put them within normal parameters/ levels over the last three years. Net 1 Managed Money trader joined on the long side and -1 left the short side. 

At the same time the producer merchants reduced their net short position by +1,164 lots (-1,306 lots long and -2,470 lots short) making their net short position -41,387 lots.  Again, the implication being that industry had not responded in size to the move lower as per the COT reporting cut off.

In comparison with the same time last year both the PM long and short remain well behind where they were last year, it also has to be taken into consideration that last year was already exceptional.

Again since the COT numbers cut off we have moved $-480 / MT and the open interest through to Thursday declined by -4.692 lots.  At the same time with the exception of Thursday volumes were not especially elevated.