New York
A big move in NY and the market was down 23.25 c/lb. on the week (-10.71%). Given the size of the move it is surprising that the open interest (OI) through to close of business on Thursday was only down -158 lots. Volume was higher than last week but remains lower in the weeks approaching the May’24 options expiry. Both the spread and outright volume picked up significantly.
London
The moves in London were proportionally larger, the Jul24 contract was down by -610 / MT on the week (-14.70%). Open Interest declined significantly during the course of the week indicating participants leaving the market -7,159 lots (-8.10 %). Total volume in the market increased, driven by the outright volume however the spread volume was down on the previous week.
Commitment Of Traders
New York
The managed money this week reduced their net long by -308 lots. (+365 lots long and +673 lots short) taking their total net position down to 69,648 lots. At the same time -9 trades left on the long side and 4 traders joined on the short side. Their total net position still remains within the upper limits of historical levels over the last three years.
The producer merchants reduced their net short position by 5,179 lots (- 463 lots long and -5,462 lots short) making their net short position -61,317 lots short. As the PM short was reduced (theoretically the hedge by PM of a physical purchase from origin) it is reasonable to believe that Origin / producers have been slow to respond to this move.
It is important to remember that since the COT numbers were officially published the market has come off 15.90 c/lb. At the same time OI only fell by -584 lots. Given the size of the move and the speed this is surprising as it indicates not many participants are leaving the market. The OI figures for close of business Friday are not yet published.
London
The managed money reduced their position by -517 lots (-961 lots long and -444 lots short making their net position + 31,005 lots. The reduction of this position over the last 4 weeks put them within normal parameters/ levels over the last three years. Net 1 Managed Money trader joined on the long side and -1 left the short side.
At the same time the producer merchants reduced their net short position by +1,164 lots (-1,306 lots long and -2,470 lots short) making their net short position -41,387 lots. Again, the implication being that industry had not responded in size to the move lower as per the COT reporting cut off.
In comparison with the same time last year both the PM long and short remain well behind where they were last year, it also has to be taken into consideration that last year was already exceptional.
Again since the COT numbers cut off we have moved $-480 / MT and the open interest through to Thursday declined by -4.692 lots. At the same time with the exception of Thursday volumes were not especially elevated.