June 02, 2024

Weekly Coffee Market Recap and Commitment of Traders Numbers (Wk ending 31/05)

By Oliver Broster

New York

The market ended the week up for the third week in a row, up 3.90 c/lb. (+ 1.79%).  Open interest through to Thursday increased significantly +12,398 lots (+5.37%) .  indicating new participant joining the move.  Overall volume was down, however the outright volume increased whilst the spread volume declined.  The end of the month on Friday and there was a sell off after three weeks of good gains. 

London

London was also up on the week + $ 95 / MT (+2.44%).  Open interest increased by + 1,372 lots (+1.45%) this indicates new participants joining the market but the number is not big enough to be entirely convincing.  Volume was down in comparison with the previous week and both spread volume and outright volume were lower. 

Coffee Markets Commitment of Traders (Futures)

New York

The Managed Money (MM) added + ,3724 lots (+3,231 lots long and -493 lots short) to their net long position making them +57,013 lots long.  5 MM Traders left the long side and the number of traders on the short side remains unchanged.

The Producer merchants sold net -3525 lots ( +121 lots long and + 3,646 lots short making them net short -55,473 lots. 

In comparison with the same time last year the PM long has fallen behind and the PM short is in line with where they were (-2%).

London

The Managed Money (MM) added to their net long  position +2,893 lots (+ 2,043 lots long and – 850 lots short) making them net long +25,623 lots long.  3 MM traders joined on the long side and -3 left on the short side. 

The PM sold net -3,953 lots (+ 3,229 lots long and -7,182 lots short) making them now net short -55,473 lots short.

The PM long in comparison with last year is ahead whilst the PM short continues to be significantly behind in spite of the significant sales this last week (- 7,182 lots).

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  • Weekly Coffee Market Recap and Commitment of Traders Numbers (Wk ending 07/06)

    New York

    Another strong week in New York (the fifth positive week in a row) the market closed + 3.65 c/lb. (+1.65%).  A big day on Fridays as the market moved from 232.50 c/lb to 224.70 c/lb ( -7.80 c/lb.) this was on much higher volume than during the rest of the week.  Open Interest (OI) through to Friday increased + 13,605 lots (+5.53%), it will be interesting to observe the OI numbers for Friday which will be released early in the afternoon (UK time) on Monday.

    The volume increased by 62% in comparison with the previous week.  The major change being the increase in the spread activity during the week.  At the same time the OI in the first position fell from 88,373 lots (31/05) to 78,456 lots (06/06) a decline of 9,917 lots.  This within the context of an increase in the overall OI of 13,605 lots.

    London

    The move in London was stronger than in NY and the market closed up + $ 141 /MT (3.54%).  This was the fourth consecutive week of gains in London.  Open interest was up through to Thursday +4,053 lots confirming increasing participation in the move, and whilst there was a significant sell off on Friday from an open of $4,280 / MT to a close of $4,125 / MT down - $ 155/ MT, the volume was not elevated. 

    Volume was up 20% on the previous week and again the major contributor to this was the spread volume which increased +36.34% in comparison with the previous week. 

    Coffee Comitment of Traders

    New York

    The Managed Money (MM) increased their long position during the week by +6,207 lots (+4,635 lots long and – 1,572 lots short) making them net long +63,220 lots long.  8 MM traders joined on the long side and 2 MM traders joined on the short side.  Earlier this year we reached a high of net long +72,818 lots on the 16/04, the current reporting number is the 5th highest / ranked since Jan ’22, all higher occurrences occurred in Apr’24.  The implication being that the probability of MM further increasing their long (whilst not implausible) is declining. 

    At the same time the Producer Merchants increased their net short by -4,229 lots (+5,310 lots long and + 9,539 lots short) making the PM Net short -59,702 lots. 

    In comparison with the same period last year:-

    London

    The MM increased their net long position by +3,029 lots (+2,811 lots long and -218 lots short, making them net long +28,625 lots long. 

    The PM increased their net short position selling -2,299 lots (-2,266 lots long and + 33 lots short) making their net position -32,735 lots short.

    In comparison with same period last year:-

    Unlike in New York both the PM Long and short remain behind where they were at the same time last year and the PM Short (hedges of purchases from origin) remains significantly behind.

     

     

     

     

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